OUTLOOK AND CONSUMPTION TRENDS FOR 2026

According to data from the General Statistics Office, the total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue at current prices in November are estimated at 601.2 trillion VND, an increase of 7.1% compared to the same period last year. Among these, revenue for the household appliances, tools, and equipment category rose by 13.6% year-on-year, driven by increased shopping demand due to seasonal weather changes and the need to replenish or replace items damaged by floods and storms. Revenue for apparel increased by 9.2%; food and foodstuffs by 7.0%; accommodation and catering services by 13.6%; and travel and tourism by 19.1%.

In aggregate for the first 11 months of 2025, total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue at current prices are estimated at 6,377.7 trillion VND, marking a 9.1% increase compared to the same period in 2024 (which itself saw an 8.9% rise). Excluding price factors, the growth stands at 6.8% (compared to 5.8% in the same period of 2024).

The General Statistics Office also reports that retail sales of goods for the 11-month period are estimated at 4,859 trillion VND, accounting for 76.2% of the total and reflecting a 7.9% year-on-year growth. Key contributors include food and foodstuffs (+9.6%), apparel (+8.5%), household appliances, tools, and equipment (+7.8%), and cultural and educational goods (+5.1%). Several localities posted significant retail sales growth compared to the same period last year, such as An Giang (+9.9%), Dong Nai (+7.9%), Ninh Binh (+7.7%), Nghe An (+7.4%), and Thanh Hoa (+7.1%).

Assessing the outlook and consumption trends for 2026, Guotai Junan Vietnam highlighted two prominent trends:

First, the trend of conscious consumption focused on health and education. The market is witnessing the rise of “conscious consumption,” as Vietnamese consumers become more budget-cautious and adjust spending levels by product category. Alongside e-commerce growth, consumers are spending more on discounted products, promotions, and good deals. Environmentally friendly products continue to be prioritized in shopping baskets, with over 33% of Vietnamese willing to pay a premium for green products.

Beyond environmental factors, financial security is driving consumers to increase spending on essential areas. According to ACSS, 67% of Vietnamese now spend more on education, healthcare, and physical well-being—surpassing the percentage spending more on daily necessities (53%).

Concurrently, demand for enhanced experiences is also growing strongly. Consumers are willing to spend more on entertainment, premium dining, and resort tourism, reflecting a trend of prioritizing “selective enjoyment.” This spending is viewed as an investment in quality of life rather than impulsive expenditure, particularly as Vietnamese consumers are more conscious of the value derived from each transaction.

Second, the “modernization” consumption trend for 2026. This encompasses e-commerce and the shift from traditional trade (GT) to modern trade (MT) channels. Digital consumption continues to spread as people become increasingly accustomed to cashless payments, online shopping, and social commerce integrated into e-commerce. In 2025, platforms like TikTok Shop, Shopee, and Lazada all recorded double-digit growth, reflecting a significant shift in shopping behavior. Entering 2026, the combination of AI for personalized customer experiences and omnichannel retail models is expected to help domestic retailers enhance productivity and consumer loyalty.

Vietnam’s e-commerce sector is forecast to have a growth potential of 35% per annum until 2028. Meanwhile, retailers are witnessing a long-term shift in consumer behavior from traditional retail channels to modern ones.

Furthermore, influencers now impact purchasing decisions more than ever. Millennials and Gen Z have long relied on influencers to discover products and choose trustworthy brands. Now, even a portion of Gen Alpha—the youngest generation—is joining this trend. Statistics show that 49% of Gen Alpha trust shopping advice from influencers as much as advice from family and friends.

For Gen Z, the influence of influencer accounts on purchase decisions far surpasses that of official retailer accounts. According to Klarna’s “Shopping Pulse” research, influencers now have greater sway than traditional retail channels in reaching this demographic.

Given supportive macro and policy factors, Guotai Junan Vietnam forecasts that consumption trends and the total revenue from retail goods and consumer services are expected to grow by 10% in 2026.